Introduction
As a seasoned developer and investor focused on accelerating value in growth markets like Boise, I’ve witnessed the transition of what drives high‑performing real estate. It’s no longer purely location—though that still matters—but the quality of location: walkability, access to transit, mixed‑use amenities, and sustainable building systems. At Evolve Development Group, we are deliberately designing projects that combine these elements: walkable development along green belts and trails + transit‑oriented development (TOD) frameworks + smart & resilient buildings. For investors, this trifecta creates differentiated assets with premium performance, lower risk, and strong exit narratives.
Market Context & Problem
The Premium for Walkability
Research clearly shows that walkable, mixed‑use assets outperform conventional models. A seminal report by Cushman & Wakefield found that “WalkUPs” (walkable urban places) across 30 major U.S. metros achieved rent premiums of 75% above drivable‑suburban equivalents — with office, retail and rental multi‑family product types delivering outsized performance. Cushman & Wakefield
Furthermore, the working paper “The Walkability Premium in Commercial Real Estate Investments” by Pivo and Fisher found that on a scale of 1‑100, a 10‑point increase in walkability corresponded to a 1%‑9% increase in property values, and lower cap rates. sxd.sala.ubc.ca+1
The Value of Transit Orientation
Developments proximate to high‑capacity transit also generate measurable returns. For instance, the U.S. Federal Transit Administration (FTA) defines TOD as “a walkable community close to reliable transit service with a mix of land uses.” Transit DOT+1
A recent North Texas study found that development within a quarter‑mile of light‑rail stations generated $18.1 billion in direct economic impact over 25 years, with residential rent premiums of ~10% and commercial up to ~12.6%. NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
In China, a study covering five megacities found that TOD locations produced statistically significant rental price uplifts. ScienceDirect
Why Investors Should Care
- Faster Lease‑Up & Lower Vacancy: Walkable/TOD assets attract tenants quickly, reducing lost rent and leasing costs.
- Higher Rent Premiums & Retention: Quality location + amenities + building performance yield stronger cash flow.
- Exit Advantage: Buyers (especially ESG‑sensitive capital) pay more or accept tighter cap rates for these high‑quality assets.
- Risk Mitigation: These assets are more resilient to changing tenant preferences, regulatory shifts (e.g., carbon/energy disclosure) and mobility patterns.
- Global Appeal: For Saudi and Chinese investors seeking stable U.S. real‑estate exposure, assets that combine sustainability, premium location and walkability are highly desirable.
Strategic Analysis & Solution: Evolve Development Group’s Approach
At Evolve Development Group, our investment‑development model for Boise’s mixed‑use and TOD assets integrates three pillars: Site + Building Performance + Tenant Experience.
1. Site Selection: Walkability & Transit Access
We prioritize parcels within close walking distance of the Boise Greenbelt and other greenbelt infrastructure, as well as future transit corridors. The logic: Every step a resident can walk to amenities or transit reduces friction, supports retention and reinforces building premium.
Drawing on the FTA’s guidance, we align land‑use zoning, density and urban design with transit service, not just adjacent but integrated. Transit DOT+1
2. Building Performance: Smart, Healthy, Sustainable
We layer building systems on top of excellent location: net‑zero design, energy‑efficient envelope, healthy indoor air quality, smart building analytics. These attributes elevate tenant experience and reduce operating cost — both critical to value for investors.
In underwriting, we model rent premiums (3‑5%) and retention gains (1‑2 months faster lease‑up, vacancy reduction of 0.5‑1%) for walkable/TOD + high‑performance combinations. Based on Cushman & Wakefield data, the premium can be much larger (10%+), though we model conservatively.
3. Tenant Experience: Mixed‑Use + Upgrades
Mixed‑use (residential + office + retail) increases synergy: residents want places to live, work and play in walkable settings; retailers benefit from foot traffic; offices value smart amenities and commute‑reduction. These dynamics strengthen cash flow and tenant quality.
From an investor lens, this diversification reduces single‑asset risk and increases stability.
Data‑Driven Investor Insights
- Rent Premiums: WalkUPs show rent premiums of ~61% for multifamily compared to drivable‑suburban spaces (C&W). Cushman & Wakefield
- Value Uplift from Walkability: A 10‑point Walk Score increase correlates with 1–9% higher property values. sxd.sala.ubc.ca+1
- TOD Economic Impact: Example – North Texas TOD generated >$18 billion economic impact and >10% rent premium. NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
- Market Growth: Global TOD market valued at USD 4.04 billion in 2024, expected to reach 6.10 billion by 2030 (CAGR ~6.95%). TechSci Research
- Exit Considerations: Fitch Ratings indicates TOD projects can achieve investment‑grade credits due to predictable cash‑flows. Fitch Ratings
Investor Modelling Example
Consider a 150‑unit mixed‑use asset of 200k sf in Boise modeled at 6% cap rate with average rent $2.50/sf/month. By incorporating walkability/TOD premium (rent +3‑5%), faster lease‑up (1‑2 months) and lower vacancy (‑0.75%), one can conservatively estimate IRR uplift of ~50‑100 bps compared to a conventional asset. Additionally, the premium helps support cap‑rate compression at exit.
Investor Takeaways: Actionable Items
- Treat walkability & transit access as core underwriting variables, not optional amenities.
- Model conservative premiums (rent +3%, vacancy cut 0.5%) yet build upside.
- Layer building performance features (net‑zero, healthy systems) to amplify location value.
- Monitor mobility & transit trends – future transit corridors or bike/walk infrastructure add value.
- For foreign investors (Saudi, Chinese): Emphasize exit value by showcasing ESG alignment, smart building integration and premium location – all elements that rate highly in institutional exit markets.
- Risk mitigation: Walkable/TOD assets are more resilient to changing commuting habits, car‑dependency scrutiny, and regulatory changes.
Closing Thoughts
In real estate today, walkability + transit orientation + building performance is the new trifecta of value creation. At Evolve Development Group, we don’t just build in Boise—we design for premium tenants, lower risk and strong investor returns. If your capital seeks assets that deliver lifestyle, sustainability and investor performance, let’s explore how walkable and TOD‑focused development can serve your portfolio.
Connect with us at Evolve Development Group to discuss upcoming walkable mixed‑use and TOD investment opportunities in Boise.
By Tyson Dirksen, Evolve Development Group
Location: San Francisco, California, United States
Email: Tyson@evolve-us.com
Website: tysondirksen.com and evolve-us.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tyson-dirksen-a543827/