By Tyson Dirksen, Founder of Evolve Development Group
For two decades, America’s real estate narrative has centered on gateway cities like San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles. But today, the strongest demographic, housing, and economic tailwinds are emerging in a different category altogether—fast-growing, economically resilient secondary cities. These markets are now outperforming traditional coastal hubs across population growth, job creation, and housing demand (U.S. Census Bureau 2024; Brookings 2023).
Cities such as Boise, Raleigh-Durham, Austin, Nashville, Denver, Greenville, and Salt Lake City are attracting talent, companies, and investment capital at accelerating rates. With sustained in-migration, sub-3% vacancy rates, and rising demand for sustainable, high-performance housing, these markets represent one of the most compelling development environments in the country.
At Evolve Development Group, our mission is to build carbon-neutral, regenerative urban neighborhoods that respond to this moment—leveraging mass timber and Net Zero design to deliver durable, future-ready assets.
Here’s why secondary cities are becoming the new frontier for investors, city leaders, and partners in sustainable development.
1. Population Boom: Migration Momentum Has Shifted
Between 2010 and 2023, many secondary cities grew at 2–3 times the national rate, reflecting durable economic and lifestyle trends rather than temporary COVID-era relocation patterns (U.S. Census Bureau 2024).
- Boise grew more than 18% over the last decade—among the fastest in the nation (Census 2024).
- Raleigh-Durham continues to add over 100 new residents per day (Wake County Economic Development 2024).
- Salt Lake City and Austin are absorbing large inflows of tech, life-science, and remote-work migrants (U.S. Census Bureau 2024; LinkedIn Workforce Report 2023).
This reflects a structural shift driven by affordability, outdoor lifestyle access, high-growth sectors, and rising knowledge-economy ecosystems (Brookings 2023).
2. Vacancy Rates Below 3%: Indicators of Structural Undersupply
Rental vacancy rates below 3% are widely recognized as evidence of severe supply constraints (HUD 2023). Many secondary markets meet or exceed this threshold:
- Boise: 2.5% (Zillow Observed Rent Index 2024)
- Raleigh: 2.8% (Cushman & Wakefield Market Report 2024)
- Salt Lake City: 2.7% (CBRE Multifamily Outlook 2024)
- Austin (urban core): consistently <3% for mid-rise multifamily (CoStar 2024)
Low vacancy supports:
- Faster lease-ups
- Strong retention
- Above-average rent growth
- Reduced stabilization risk
These fundamentals have held even through interest-rate volatility and macroeconomic cycles (RealPage Analytics 2024).
3. Rent Growth: 6–10% Annually in Core Secondary Markets
Over the past decade, several secondary markets have delivered 6–10% annual rent growth, compared with ~3–4% nationally (Zillow 2024; Apartment List National Rent Report 2024).
Drivers include:
- In-migration from high-cost coastal metros
- Expanding sectors in tech, healthcare, clean energy, logistics, and research (BLS 2024)
- Limited zoning capacity and supply bottlenecks
- Surging demand for sustainable, wellness-oriented housing
Mass timber and Net Zero design can further strengthen absorption and rental premiums due to biophilic design benefits, thermal comfort, and operational efficiencies (WoodWorks 2023; Rocky Mountain Institute 2023).
4. Why Secondary Cities Are Ideal for Mass Timber & Net Zero
Mass Timber Advantages
Research shows mass timber can:
- Speed construction by up to 25% (WoodWorks 2023)
- Reduce onsite labor needs by ~75% (ThinkWood 2023)
- Cut embodied carbon by 30–50% compared with concrete (Carbon Leadership Forum 2023)
- Support mid-rise density compatible with many secondary-city zoning codes
- Strengthen U.S. forest-management and wildfire-resilience goals (U.S. Forest Service 2023)
Net Zero Advantages
Net Zero buildings typically:
- Reduce energy consumption 50–70% (Rocky Mountain Institute 2023)
- Improve NOI via lower utility costs
- Attract ESG-focused tenants and institutions (GRESB 2023)
- Strengthen asset resilience amid tightening carbon-reporting requirements (IEA 2023)
Secondary cities—with flexible planning environments, available land, and pro-growth regulatory policies—are ideal proving grounds for these models.
5. Why Investors Should Pay Attention Now
Three macro forces are converging:
1. Surging Demand
Population growth + low vacancy = durable, compounding housing demand (Census 2024; HUD 2023).
2. Constrained Supply
Zoning bottlenecks + limited sustainable-design development pipelines = strong pricing power (ULI Emerging Trends 2024).
3. ESG Capital Acceleration
Institutional capital increasingly targets:
- Low-carbon materials
- Net Zero operations
- Resilient, electrified systems
- Transparent, verifiable carbon impacts
(GRESB 2023; PRI 2024)
Mass timber and Net Zero developments meet these criteria while secondary cities offer cost structures and absorption to make them financially attractive.
6. The Opportunity Ahead
At Evolve Development Group, we believe the next decade of U.S. sustainable urban development will be defined by secondary cities—places where demographic upside, environmental responsibility, and financial performance converge.
Our projects focus on creating carbon-neutral, regenerative communities that deliver:
- Competitive, risk-adjusted returns for investors
- Healthier environments for residents
- Resilient infrastructure for cities
- Lower-carbon outcomes for the built environment
Conclusion: The Next Chapter of Urban Growth Has Already Begun
Secondary cities are no longer “emerging”—they are setting the pace for American population growth, housing demand, economic dynamism, and next-generation sustainable development.
Developers, investors, and city partners who embrace mass timber and Net Zero today will help shape the future of American urban living.
If you’re an investor, city leader, or partner interested in advancing sustainable, mass-timber and Net-Zero projects in high-growth secondary cities, I’d love to connect. Evolve Development Group is actively planning a pipeline of mass-timber and Net-Zero projects currently in design development. Contact us at info@evolve-us.com to start a conversation.
For more information, interviews, or investment insights:
Tyson Dirksen
Founder, Evolve Development Group
Email: info@evolve-us.com
Website: evolve-us.com | tysondirksen.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/tyson-dirksen-a543827/